Jon Metler

“The Cavaliers are massive 82% favorites against the Brooklyn Nets , but I actually price them closer to 86%, giving us an edge even at this high probability.”

“Even with Joel Embiid listed as questionable and the possibility of his absence factored into my projection, I still see value on the Philadelphia 76ers , who are trading as 83% favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks .”

“I don't see how Jalen Smith , playing at center, stands a chance against a frontcourt featuring Anthony Davis , Deandre Ayton , and Alex Sarr .”

“That's why I'm backing Phoenix at 64%, as the Suns still offer value even if Curry plays more than 30 minutes.”

“I have the San Antonio Spurs projected at 83%, even with Irving playing 28 minutes.”

“The Rockets are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I price them closer to 64% favorites against the Atlanta Hawks, well above the market's 55%.”

“My projection is relatively close to the market, with the Denver Nuggets coming in at 86%, but there's still value on the home team at the current price.”

“I like the Miami Heat here, pricing them closer to 61% compared to a market probability of 53%.”

“The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at 38% to win Game 1 of the World Series, and I'll hit the button at that price, as I make them closer to 40%.”

“I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener up to 63%.”

“I see a slight edge on the Rockets at 35% if Fox plays, and that edge grows considerably if he's ruled out.”

“I price Milwaukee closer to a 58% favorite, giving me a solid edge on the Bucks at the current market price.”

“I think Orlando should be the 54% favorite, so I'll gladly back the Magic at Polymarket.”

“The Atlanta Hawks picked up an impressive win in Orlando in their opener, but at 45%, I'll back Charlotte to get the job done in its home opener.”

“The Raptors are sizable 67% road favorites, and deservedly so.”

“After Boston's collapse in its opener, I'm backing Jayson Tatum and the Celtics to bounce back in Friday's NBA moneyline picks.”

“I'm also siding with the Detroit Pistons against Miami.”

“As a Jazz backer, I hope Jones barely sees the floor.”

“At 23%, the value lies with the Clippers”

“A 74% probability is steep against another Western Conference contender, but my projections still see value, pricing Oklahoma City closer to 77% favorites on Thursday.”

“At 42%, I'll back Cleveland, as I price the Cavaliers closer to a 45% underdog against the 76ers.”

“I make Dallas closer to a 30% underdog, so I'm going to trust the projections and back the Mavericks at 25%.”

“Even on the road against the Grizzlies, I make the Jazz closer to 54% favorites.”

“Those absences might seem insignificant, but they matter, creating an edge at 41% as I price the Pelicans closer to 47% to win their home opener against the Pacers.”

“Against the Nets, Miller can serve as the primary offensive engine and lead the Hornets to victory.”

“It's not a massive edge, but I'll roll with the Heat as 52% favorites, as I make them closer to 55% to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves at home.”

“AJ Dybantsa will miss Wednesday's season opener with an injury, but that won't stop me from backing the Wizards as 64% home favorites.”

“At 58%, the Magic are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I price them closer to 64% favorites.”

“I price the Lakers closer to 74% favorites.”

“At 55%, give me the Spurs on the moneyline.”

“Give me Boston at 52% on the moneyline.”

“That's why I'm putting my money on New York to open the season.”

“I'm backing the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 and take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS.”

“It all adds up to a Game 5 in Dodger Stadium on Friday, and I'd recommend Los Angeles on the run line to 43%.”

“At 58%, I'll take the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, as I make them 62% favorites against Dustin May (who is expected to pitch in bulk relief of starter Shane Drohan ) and the Milwaukee Brewers .”

“I'll gladly take Tampa at 46%, as I project it as a 51% favorite in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Guardians.”

“I'll hit the button on the Golden State Warriors at 42%, as I price them closer to 46% in this matchup.”

“No matter which angle you attack this one at, it smells like an Under.”

“Give me the New York Yankees in Game 1 at 56% on the moneyline at Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 60% favorite against the Boston Red Sox.”

“With the Philadelphia Phillies rotation taxed after battling to their final game to secure a postseason berth, I'd recommend the Atlanta Braves moneyline to 68%.”

“The Over hit in five of their six regular-season meetings, and I'm backing another high-scoring game.”

“Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers/Twins Over 7”

“The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres.”

“Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline”

“Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/A's Over 8.5”

“The Cleveland Guardians are live underdogs against Ranger Suarez and the Boston Red Sox today, and I'd play this up to 48%.”

“I'll back the San Diego Padres at 38%, as I price them closer to a 44% underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers .”

“The Chicago Cubs aren't dropping three straight to the Miami Marlins , and I recommend the run line to 50%.”

“The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading at 54%, but I price them closer to 57%, so I'm hitting the button.”

“Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays vs Orioles Over 7.5”

“Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins vs Giants Over 7.5”

“Give me the Minnesota Twins at 52% on the moneyline, as I make them closer to a 57% favorite against the San Francisco Giants .”

“I'll ride with the Jays at a fair-priced 50% and will play it to 53%.”

“I've loved watching Walbert Urena pitch this year, and I'm going to ride with him and the Los Angeles Angels one more time as 49% underdogs.”

“The Brewers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to hit the button on Milwaukee.”