Covers
41 claims extracted. Graded pick ledger
UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -5.5GB SPREAD -6.5
“Joe Osborne favors the Under 44.5 at 52.8%, noting that Penix's road numbers dropped sharply last season, Green Bay managed only 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2 and is dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen, leaving both offenses ill-equipped to score against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
“Jon Metler takes GB -5.5 at 52.4%, contending that the Packers opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropping to -5.5 represents a buy opportunity, as he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite and views the opening number as the more accurate reflection of the matchup with Penix making his first start in 10 months following major knee surgery in a tough road environment.”
“Dustin Saracini backs GB -6.5 at 52.4%, arguing that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an extremely difficult task for the Falcons, even with Michael Penix Jr. under center.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 4:20 PM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -5.5GB SPREAD -6.5UNDER 43.5
“Jon Metler backs GB -5.5 at -115, arguing the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite and that the line dropping from the opening number of -7 creates a buy opportunity, while noting Michael Penix Jr. faces a tough road environment in his first game back from major knee surgery, with a $10 qualifying bet returning $200 in bonus bets win or lose.”
“Dustin Saracini takes GB -6.5 at -115, pointing to Atlanta ranking 29th in total offense and last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an especially daunting task for Penix, with a $10 qualifying bet returning $200 in bonus bets win or lose.”
“Joe Osborne plays the Under 43.5 at -115, citing Penix's road struggles last season where Atlanta averaged just 16 points per game in his five road starts, Green Bay's offensive limitations against the Jets in Week 2, and injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen on a short week, with a $10 qualifying bet returning $200 in bonus bets win or lose.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 4:10 PM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -6.5GB SPREAD -5.5UNDER 43.5
“Dustin Saracini recommends Green Bay -6.5 at -111, arguing that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an overwhelming challenge even with Michael Penix Jr. under center.”
“Jon Metler backs Green Bay -5.5 at -111, noting that the Packers opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropping to -5.5 represents a buy opportunity since he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite, while Penix returns from major knee surgery into a tough road environment in his first game back in 10 months.”
“Joe Osborne takes the under 43.5 at -118, pointing to Atlanta averaging just 16 points per game in Penix's five road starts last season and Green Bay managing only 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, with both offenses facing defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 4:00 PM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -6.5UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -5.5
“Dustin Saracini backs GB -6.5 at -4.5 -115, pointing out that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and last in passing with just 129 yards per game through two weeks, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an extremely difficult task even with Penix starting.”
“Joe Osborne recommends the Under 44.5 at u42.5 -102, noting that Penix averaged only 16 PPG in five road starts last season, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and both offenses face defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week, making points a premium on TNF.”
“Jon Metler also takes GB -5.5 at -4.5 -115, arguing that the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup and that the line dropping from the opening number of -7 presents a buy opportunity, as Penix returns from major knee surgery into a tough road environment for his first game back in 10 months.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 3:50 PM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -5.5GB SPREAD -6.5UNDER 44.5
“Jon Metler takes the Packers -5.5 at -110, noting the line has dropped from an opening number of -7 and that he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite, making the current number a buy opportunity given Penix's return from 10 months of recovery from major knee surgery and the tough road environment he faces.”
“Dustin Saracini backs Green Bay -6.5 at -110, arguing the Falcons rank 29th in total offense and dead last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a defense ranked fifth in total defense an enormous challenge even with Michael Penix Jr. under center.”
“Joe Osborne recommends the under 44.5 at -112, pointing to Penix's poor road splits last season (averaging just 16 PPG in five road starts), Green Bay's 199-yard offensive output in Week 2, injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple Packers offensive linemen, and both defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry as reasons to expect a low-scoring Thursday night game.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 3:00 PM ET · Read at source ↗
UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -5.5GB SPREAD -6.5
“Joe Osborne recommends the Under 44.5 at u43.0 -115, noting that Penix averaged only 16 PPG in five road starts last season, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and both defenses are allowing fewer than three yards per carry, making points a premium on a short week.”
“Jon Metler also takes GB -5.5 at -5.5 -110, arguing that the Packers should be closer to 6.5-point favorites and that the line dropping from the opening number of -7 presents a buy opportunity, as Penix returns from 10 months off following major knee surgery into a tough road environment.”
“Dustin Saracini backs GB -6.5 at -5.5 -110, pointing out that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing with just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an extremely difficult task for even a healthy Penix.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 2:50 PM ET · Read at source ↗
UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -6.5GB SPREAD -5.5
“Joe Osborne likes the under 44.5 at 52.8%, noting that Penix's road splits last season averaged only 16 points per game for Atlanta, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and is dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen, and neither offense looks ready to produce against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
“Dustin Saracini favors Green Bay -6.5 at 52.4%, pointing out that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and last in passing with just 129 yards per game through two weeks, and that Penix heading on the road to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense presents a steep challenge.”
“Jon Metler backs Green Bay -5.5 at 52.4%, arguing the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite and that the line drop from the opening number of -7 creates a buy opportunity, while Michael Penix Jr. returns from major knee surgery for his first game in 10 months into a tough road environment.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 2:40 PM ET · Read at source ↗
UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -6.5GB SPREAD -5.5
“Joe Osborne recommends the Under 44.5 at 51.9%, pointing to Penix's average of just 16 PPG in five road starts last season, Green Bay's 199-yard offensive output in Week 2, injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen, and both defenses holding opponents to fewer than three yards per carry as reasons to expect a low-scoring game on a short week.”
“Dustin Saracini backs GB -6.5 at 54.5%, noting the Falcons rank 29th in total offense and last in passing with just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an extremely difficult assignment for Penix in his return.”
“Jon Metler favors GB -5.5 at 54.5%, arguing the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite and that the line drop from the opening number of -7 creates a buy opportunity, while Michael Penix Jr. returns from major knee surgery into a tough road environment.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 11:40 AM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -5.5UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -6.5
“Jon Metler recommends GB -5.5 at 54.5%, arguing that the Packers opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropping to -5.5 represents a buy opportunity, as he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite and believes the opening number was nearer to the correct figure despite market movement toward Atlanta.”
“Joe Osborne backs the Under 44.5 at 51.9%, pointing out that Penix averaged only 16 points per game in five road starts last season, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and both offenses face defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
“Dustin Saracini favors GB -6.5 at 54.5%, noting that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an especially daunting task for a Falcons team that has struggled all season.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 11:30 AM ET · Read at source ↗
UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -5.5GB SPREAD -6.5
“Joe Osborne recommends the under 44.5 at u43.0 -115, noting that Penix averaged only 16 PPG in five road starts last season, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2 and is dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen, and neither offense looks ready to produce against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
“Jon Metler also takes Green Bay -5.5 at -5.5 -105, arguing that the market has moved too far toward Atlanta after the line dropped from its opening number of -7, and that the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup, making the current number a buy opportunity despite Penix returning from 10 months off following major knee surgery.”
“Dustin Saracini backs Green Bay -6.5 at -5.5 -105, pointing out that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing with just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense that ranks fifth in total defense an extremely difficult assignment even with Penix under center.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 11:10 AM ET · Read at source ↗
UNDER 43GB SPREAD -4.5GB SPREAD -4.5
“Joe Osborne recommends the Under 44.5 at u43.0 -108, noting that Penix's road splits last season showed a sharp drop in production, Green Bay managed only 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and both defenses are stifling the run on a short week.”
“Dustin Saracini takes the Packers at GB -6.5 at -4.5 -120, pointing to Atlanta's league-worst passing offense averaging just 129 yards per game and the challenge of visiting Lambeau Field against a Green Bay defense that ranks fifth in total defense.”
“Jon Metler backs Green Bay at GB -5.5 at -4.5 -120, arguing the Packers are closer to a 6.5-point favorite and that the line drop from the opening number of -7 creates a buy opportunity, while Michael Penix Jr. faces a tough road debut in his return from major knee surgery.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 11:00 AM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -5.5UNDER 44.5GB SPREAD -6.5
“Jon Metler backs GB -5.5 at -111, contending that the Packers opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropping to -5.5 represents a buy opportunity, as he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite and views the opening line as nearer to the correct number despite the market moving toward Atlanta.”
“Joe Osborne takes the Under 44.5 at -118, noting that Penix averaged only 16 PPG across five road starts last season, Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2, and both offenses face defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
“Dustin Saracini recommends GB -6.5 at -111, arguing that Atlanta ranks 29th in total offense and dead last in passing with just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense ranked fifth in total defense an extremely difficult task for a struggling Falcons squad.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 5:12 AM ET · Read at source ↗
GB SPREAD -6.5GB SPREAD -5.5UNDER 44.5
“Dustin Saracini backs GB -6.5 at -115, arguing the Falcons rank 29th in total offense and dead last in passing at just 129 yards per game, making a road trip to Lambeau Field against a Packers defense that ranks fifth in total defense an especially daunting task for a team starting a quarterback returning from major knee surgery.”
“Jon Metler takes GB -5.5 at -115, reasoning that the Packers opened as 7-point favorites and the line dropping to -5.5 represents a buy opportunity, as he prices Green Bay closer to a 6.5-point favorite and believes the opening number was nearer to the correct one despite the market shifting toward Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. returning.”
“Joe Osborne selects the Under 44.5 at -102, noting that Penix averaged just 16 points per game for Atlanta in five road starts last season, Green Bay managed only 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2 and is dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen, leaving both offenses ill-equipped to produce against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry on a short week.”
ATL @ GBThu, Sep 24, 4:41 AM ET · Read at source ↗
OVER 6.5NYY ML 99¢
“Todd Cordell recommends taking the Over 6.5 total, noting that the Yankees possess elite power against left-handed pitching, which is Ian Seymour's Achilles heel given his high barrel rate, while Gerrit Cole has posted a 5.71 xERA over the last month and allowed at least two earned runs in all but one home start.”
“Todd Cordell recommends the New York Yankees to win, citing the Yankees' second-ranked xwOBA and league-leading barrel rate against southpaws, which should exploit Seymour's 10.5% barrel rate allowed over the last month and his season-long struggles with power.”
TB @ NYYWed, Sep 23, 1:30 PM ET · Read at source ↗