Phil Naessens

“Skip the heavy straight price and back the White Sox.”

“The Astros hold every offensive advantage and finish their series strong.”

“Baltimore at 40% is the premier underdog position on the Sunday board.”

“Back the Mets at even money behind the Mets' steady starting pitching.”

“Nick Martinez pitches to contact, giving Philadelphia's patient order enough scoring chances to secure the coin-flip home victory.”

“Chicago's lineup puts the ball in play consistently and controls the strike zone, giving them a steady road edge.”

“It's a juicy one, but the Dodgers are the play.”

“At 40%, backing the visiting underdogs offers strong mathematical value on game 162.”

“Take the Braves at a very fair road price in South Florida.”

“The Brewers should cruise comfortably at American Family Field today.”

“River Ryan gets early run support from a locked-in Detroit lineup, making the Tigers the right side against Pirates starter Jared Jones.”

“The Diamondbacks provide high-upside value, catching plus money at Petco Park.”

“Dean Kremer works deep and delivers the Twins a plus-money home win over the Rangers.”

“The Guardians take care of business on the road at reasonable chalk.”

“Take the Angels in what should prove to be a tight contest.”

“With an emotional home crowd and a Pittsburgh bullpen sporting a 1.34 WHIP and 4.61 ERA across the last 14 days, Detroit gets the nod.”

“Toronto is the much sharper side at Rogers Centre.”

“Blake Snell commands massive respect in the market, but San Francisco brings legitimate upset potential in a rivalry clash.”

“Miami brings strong starting pitching upside against a resting Atlanta squad.”

“The Twins are in a good spot to play spoiler in Minneapolis.”

“Philadelphia is fighting to secure a wild-card seed and has the superior lineup against a taxed Tampa relief corps.”

“Expect Arizona's bats and bullpen to show up with full urgency.”

“Houston is in a good spot to seize the division.”

“Seattle is getting too much public credit, giving the Angels great value to pull off the road upset.”

“Cleveland holds huge motivational and bullpen advantages that should carry them to victory.”

“Colorado hits .275 over the last two weeks, making the Rockies an appealing live underdog against a vulnerable White Sox rotation.”

“Jonah Tong gets the nod against Jake Irvin, giving New York solid road value.”

“Quinn Mathews takes the ball for St. Louis, making the Cardinals a live road dog against a coasting Brewers club.”

“Phillies vs Mets: Mets”

“Red Sox vs Rays: Rays”

“Royals vs Pirates: Pirates”

“Athletics vs Guardians: Guardians”

“Braves vs Astros: Astros”

“Tigers vs White Sox: Tigers”

“Blue Jays vs Rangers: Blue Jays”

“Nationals vs Cardinals: Cardinals”

“Marlins vs Padres: Padres”

“Giants vs Dodgers: Dodgers”

“Brewers vs Orioles: Brewers”

“Yankees vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks”

“Twins vs Angels: Angels”

“Mariners vs Rockies: Mariners”

“Christian Scott gets my backing.”

“Robert Gasser finds himself in an ideal bounce spot against a lineup that beats itself, making Milwaukee the sharp call.”

“Brandon Pfaadt at Chase Field against Cam Schlittler makes Arizona an outstanding home underdog.”

“Bryce Miller has plenty of run cushion to work through thin air against Tomoyuki Sugano, setting up Seattle as a terrific road favorite.”

“San Diego is priced to move behind Casey Mize.”

“St. Louis boasts plenty of swing-and-miss depth in the pen (10.99 K/9, 3.72 SIERA), giving Michael McGreevy a secure floor to close out Washington at a strong price.”

“Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick'em spot for the Astros.”

“Jose Soriano commands the edge over Cal Quantrill, making the Blue Jays a terrific plus-money road play.”

“Back the Pirates at this solid price.”

“Matthew Boyd has the tools to keep Cincinnati off-balance, giving the Cubs great road value.”

“With Tanner Bibee on the bump and the A's bullpen putting runners on base at will (1.47 WHIP, 4.45 SIERA), the Guardians are worth laying the juice here.”

“Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.”

“Tampa Bay continues to produce loud contact (.452 SLG, 117 wRC+), giving Freddy Peralta all the breathing room he needs at the Trop against rookie Payton Tolle to cash this play.”

“With Minnesota's bats flatlining at a league-average 100 wRC+, Cleveland is a mispriced underdog.”

“Chase Burns possesses the raw strikeout profile to neutralize Milwaukee's bats, making Shane Drohan and the vulnerable Brewers pen heavily overvalued on Sunday.”

“While Bubba Chandler is a high-ceiling prospect, Matthew Boyd's veteran craftiness, backed by Chicago's thunderous offense, makes the Cubs a strong target at 55%.”

“The A's offense has generated legitimate pop (.180 ISO, 103 wRC+) and their bullpen boasts a sharp 3.42 SIERA, making them a prime home dog.”

“Cal Quantrill should pitch with an early lead against Eduardo Rodriguez, allowing Texas to cash this road underdog play.”

“Backing Colorado capitalizes on Detroit's hollow lineup production and a Tigers bullpen leaking baserunners with a 4.35 SIERA and 11.1% walk rate.”

“Angels vs Nationals: Angels”

“Andrew Painter's raw stuff presents a nightmare matchup for a slumping Braves order, and Philadelphia's bullpen edge (3.61 SIERA to Atlanta's 3.39 SIERA with superior walk prevention) makes the Phillies the sharper side.”

“Hayden Wesneski keeps Houston alive through the middle frames, and catching plus-money on Houston against an unstable Rays bullpen is a wise play.”

“Christian Scott gives the Mets competitive early innings, and grabbing this price on the hotter lineup provides clear standalone value in the Subway Series.”

“Noah Cameron matches up well against an undisciplined Red Sox order, making Kansas City a strong, plus-money play.”

“Justin Wrobleski is backed by a solid Dodgers lineup (113 wRC+, 12.4% BB%) and a lockdown bullpen (3.35 SIERA), warranting the juice.”

“San Diego's bullpen ranks No. 1 in baseball over the last 14 days with a pristine 2.87 SIERA and a 30.6% strikeout rate, whereas San Francisco's pen sits at a soft 4.46 SIERA, giving the Padres substantial value tonight.”

“Michael McGreevy gets the benefit of a far superior St. Louis offensive unit (108 wRC+, .330 OBP) and a bullpen capable of missing bats (26.8% K%, 3.51 SIERA), making the Cardinals an attractive home underdog.”

“Backed by a dominant Toronto bullpen sporting a 2.03 ERA and 3.33 SIERA, laying the juice on the Jays is the sharp play against an Orioles offense sitting at an 87 wRC+.”

“I think that quality gap shows up today in Game 1.”

“I'll go with Arizona again in the nightcap.”

“I'll roll with the Orioles.”

“I'm going with the Yankees again in the nightcap.”

“Taking the Yankees here.”

“I'm going with Cleveland.”

“Arizona in both games.”

“I'll go with Arizona again in the nightcap.”

“I'll roll with Tampa Bay.”

“I'll take the Braves.”

“I'm rolling with the Cubs.”

“Sliding with Toronto here.”

“I like Miami and am going against the room.”

“I like the Phillies to win.”

“I'm taking the Brewers here.”

“I like the Cardinals here.”

“Going against the room on this one and rolling with the White Sox.”

“I'll roll with Houston, and fade the public again.”