Last updated October 25, 2026
Every signal on Billy is a read on today’s prices, not a claim about how right it has been before. This page describes what each one measures and the bar it has to clear to fire. Win-loss records, when we keep them at all, live in an internal weekly summary, never on a card. The one record here is the Score’s own, against the closing line, as counts.
Every game market and prop gets one Score, out of 100: how far the signal weight leans to the side, pulled toward 50 when there is little weight behind it. 50 is an even split. One market signal alone reads about 73, two agreeing about 81; it takes a lot of weight, all on one side, to near 100. Each signal counts once per market, on its latest side. The number of signals always sits beside the Score.
There are two kinds of rows. Facts are reads on today’s prices, money and weather: Heavy Money, Reverse Line Move, Mispriced, True Price, the props price reads, game logs against a prop’s line, and Wind. Each fact carries the same fixed weight from its first day, and a fact’s row says what it saw in one sentence and nothing more.
Opinions are analysts, pods, wallets, sims and published trend systems. Each one is graded on its own record against the closing line: did the price move toward its side by kickoff. An opinion carries weight on a game only once it is positive overall and in that sport and has a record on one of the two teams; until then it is listed, dimmed, and moves nothing. Its record shows on its row as a count, never a percentage.
Opinions never outweigh facts. On any market, all the opinions together can weigh no more than the market signals that fired there. With no market signal on the market, opinions alone can still carry a Score, but never more than one market signal would. When that cap holds, the row says so under its bar.
The Score is graded too: the first time a market’s Score takes a side, that side is a pick at the best price then, and it beats the close when the line moves toward it by kickoff. Since October 25, 2026, by the Score at the pick:
Information only. Billy does not place bets.
True Price devigs the two sharpest sportsbooks, Pinnacle first and FanDuel as a fallback, to find a market’s real implied probability with the vig stripped out. When the best price allowed anywhere, book, DFS, or exchange, pays more than that fair value, the gap is a real edge. It fires at a gap of 2 probability points or more.
Heavy Money uses the same method as a sportsbook public betting page, applied to Kalshi and Polymarket. Bets: each order placed is one bet, the way one placed bet is one ticket. On Kalshi, fills on the same contract, side and second are one order; on Polymarket, fills in the same transaction are one order. Money: dollars staked, price times contracts. For each side we show its share of the bets, its share of the money, and the gap between them in points, with both exchanges added together.
We count takers only: the trader who crossed the spread to place the order, never the resting order on the other side of it. Only orders placed before kickoff count. An exchange counts toward a game’s read only once it has at least 50 orders on that market, the same bar for every exchange and sport.
Heavy Money fires on any side whose share of the money beats its share of the bets by 15 points or more, once the market has at least 20 bets. That side does not need most of the money or most of the bets: 32% of the bets and 47% of the money is a fire. On the moneyline, that side’s own price must also sit between −150 and +150: a heavily lopsided favorite or dog price alone can skew the split without any real positioning behind it.
The table shows every game and market, fired or not, with the counts behind it. With fewer than 20 bets the numbers still show, marked as too few to rely on.
Sharp Wallets tracks Polymarket wallets scored against the closing price, the same bar a stock picker would be judged on. It fires when at least 8 scored wallets are positioned on one side and at least 65% of them agree, or, independently, when 3 or more scored wallets exit one side within 60 minutes (Sharp Exits).
Sharp Exits does not exist anywhere else in sports betting, because a sportsbook bet has no exit. On-chain, we can watch smart money actually leave a side before a line ever needs to move.
Graded Analysts collects picks from named experts across the web, news sites, podcasts, and social posts, extracted verbatim and linked back to the original source. Nothing is rewritten or summarized by us. It fires when at least 3 gradeable claims exist on a game and the grade-weighted lean favors one side by 65% or more.
Reverse Line Move is about tickets and the line, nothing else. It fires on a side when at least 60% of the tickets (exchange trades, Kalshi and Polymarket combined, since the market opened, the same count Heavy Money uses for its bets) are on the other side, and the line has moved toward this side since it opened and held there. The line is the sharpest book’s own number for a spread or total (0.5 points or more) and its price for a moneyline (3 points of implied probability or more), read from one book the whole way. A price wobble with no move in the actual number, or a move that later reverses back close to where it opened, does not fire. A market needs 1,000 tickets or $25,000 staked before it can fire. Where the money is sits next to it, in Heavy Money.
Trends surfaces published betting systems and angles from tracked handicapping sources, matched to today’s games and always linked back to where they were published. A trend’s own record, when its source publishes one, is that source’s claim about itself, never Billy’s. Trends is informational only: it never lights the Grid and it never counts toward Alpha.
Props looks for player prop lines the market has mispriced. True Price for props runs the same devigged Pinnacle/FanDuel methodology as the game markets above; a card only appears when that edge has fired AND at least one other read agrees with it, either recent game-log performance against this exact line or how much real demand the prop is drawing today relative to the rest of its own game. An edge with nothing else confirming it, or no edge at all, never becomes a card.
We never take money from sportsbooks. We get paid by you or not at all.